Parametric Modification of the Wald–Hurwicz Criterion with Adaptive Formation of the Conservatism Coefficient

Abstract

The paper proposes a parametric modification of the Wald–Hurwicz criterion for operational decision-making under uncertainty in the construction of nuclear power plants when reliable probabilities of alternative scenarios are unavailable. Unlike the classical formulation, the conservatism coefficient is determined as a function of the current decision situation, taking into account the severity of the detected deviation and the safety significance of the operation. A formal mathematical model is developed, including a representation of the decision situation, an integral severity indicator, a procedure for constructing the set of feasible alternatives, and a parametric modification of the Wald–Hurwicz criterion. The model is theoretically validated with respect to correctness, fundamental mathematical properties, stability, and computational complexity. An experimental verification methodology is proposed, including comparison with classical decision criteria, quantitative evaluation metrics, and an ablation study. The experimental results demonstrate the adaptive behavior of the proposed approach, improved decision quality compared with the classical Wald–Hurwicz criterion, and its applicability to decision support systems for nuclear power plant construction.