Systemic analysis of clinical data in dry eye syndrome: a model for supporting medical decision-making
Abstract
This paper considers the issue of constructing a mathematical model to support decision-making by ophthalmologists in cases of dry eye syndrome associated with meibomian gland dysfunction, based on standard clinical and diagnostic parameters used during outpatient consultations. The initial diagnostic indicators were normalized and their acceptable ranges were checked. To ensure the comparability of indicators in subsequent modeling, the parameter values were reduced to a single formalized form. An early control point (T1) corresponding to the assessment of the patient's condition after the first stage of therapy was selected as the key time reference in the study, which was due to clinical expediency and the need to decide whether to continue the previously selected tactics or to enhance them by adding IPL therapy and eyelid massage. The predicted outcome within the model was an early clinical response, defined as a consistent improvement in subjective and objective indicators of the condition of the ocular surface. The probability of achieving an early clinical response in each individual patient was described by a logistic regression model. To ensure the clinical interpretability of the results of prognostic modeling and the possibility of practical application of the conclusions obtained in outpatient settings, a score model was developed, which is a simplified form of the basic logistic prognostic model. The score model is designed for the integrated assessment of the severity of the patient's initial condition and to justify the need for early IPL therapy and eyelid massage without performing complex probability calculations.
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