Mathematical model of sea traffic through the Kerch strait

E.A. Kuzhbanova, S.V. Porshnev


The article substantiates an analogy between the dynamics of vessel traffic through the Kerch Strait and the dynamics of a non-stationary queuing system (QS) operating in an underloaded mode. Based on the analysis of data on the movement of ships, which were extracted from navigation charts that are freely available on the Internet, in this region of the World Ocean. The results of a statistical analysis of data on the movement of sea vessels through the Kerch Strait are presented, showing the features of the movement of a sea vessel, displayed in the direction of its movement and at different points in time. Estimates of the parameters of a mathematical model describing the dynamics of vessel traffic in the Kerch Strait are obtained. Dependences of the number of ships waiting for passage and passing under the Crimean bridge on time are considered. An analysis of the results of simulation modeling of a single-channel QS based on data on the movement of ships through the Kerch Strait, extracted from freely available online sea charts, is presented. Histograms of the dependence of the number of sea vessels in the studied part of the World Ocean on time, as well as a histogram of the distribution of the waiting time for servicing applications received by the QS, the duration of model time intervals are constructed.

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